Should you still major in computer science?
Plus: How states are leading on higher ed accountability.
News outlets are starting to declare “peak computer science.” Over the past 15 years, the popularity of the computer science (CS) major surged so much that universities turned away CS hopefuls. Nearly 5 percent of early-career college graduates now hold a degree in CS, and it is the third-most-common major after nursing and psychology.
But the luster of the keyboard has started to fade. Last fall, the number of CS majors dropped by 8 percent, according to the National Student Clearinghouse. Layoffs in the technology sector have given prospective CS majors cold feet. Students fret about AI taking their jobs. Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, even says he wouldn’t major in computer science were he in college today.
Has computer science—historically, one of the highest-paid college majors—turned into a bad deal? Students often ask me this when I discuss my research on the value of college. While there are reasons to be more cautious, on balance CS remains a good investment—especially when compared to the alternatives.
Are CS jobs disappearing?
One of the most compelling arguments against majoring in CS today is a scarcity of jobs for young people. According to the American Community Survey, 7.2 percent of early-career college graduates who majored in CS were unemployed in 2024—well above the 4.5 percent rate for all early-career graduates.
It’s not difficult to find explanations. Technology companies are still shedding tens of thousands of jobs. Some evidence exists that AI-driven labor market disruption is hitting jobs for young programmers first, given how well AI tools can automate basic coding processes. “I can now do with five people what used to require 15,” one software engineer and executive writes. “Between the improvement in software development tools, the dazzling array of open-source software platforms, and AI code generation, software engineering is becoming a paint-by-numbers exercise.”
While the effects of AI have dominated headlines, more conventional economic pressures are also at work. Computer science may be a victim of its own success: in absolute numbers, the ranks of early-career CS majors have exploded from less than 70,000 in 2009 to more than 250,000 in 2024. This is a function both of CS’s rising popularity as a major, and more students earning bachelor’s degrees overall. Though the tech industry’s growth over that period also created plenty of new job opportunities, such an explosion of labor supply can still result in elevated unemployment.
But CS graduates, hoping their skills should enable them to command high salaries, may also be more likely to hold out for a good job offer. A high reservation wage could be a factor behind elevated unemployment: if you know your skills can land you a $90,000-a-year job, shouldn’t you wait until one comes along? While a surplus of workers can sometimes depress wages, this hasn’t yet happened in the CS job market.
Earnings for CS majors are holding up
For recent CS graduates who do manage to find jobs, a bonanza awaits. The median salary for early-career CS majors was $90,000 in 2024. The median salary for all recent college graduates was just $55,000. CS students also out-earn other majors prized for their high returns, including mechanical engineering, nursing, and finance. While mechanical engineers once out-earned CS majors, today the reverse is true.
What’s more, early-career computer science majors have enjoyed strong growth in their salaries since the early 2010s. Other popular majors like psychology, biology, and education have seen only tepid wage increases.
There’s reason for optimism that things will continue to improve. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, jobs for software developers are expected to grow 15 percent over the next ten years, much faster than average. (Around half of recent CS graduates take jobs as software developers.) While AI can automate basic coding tasks, that can enable software developers to spend more time on aspects of their jobs that AI cannot (yet) replicate. The resulting productivity boost could ensure demand for software developers remains strong.
Something like this happened with radiologists. As Deena Mousa writes for Works in Progress, while doomsayers predicted that AI’s ability to read medical scans would make radiologists obsolete, hospitals still need radiologists to do all kinds of other medical tasks. There’s no guarantee the same will happen with CS jobs, but the example does illustrate how jobs can evolve rather than disappear with new technology.
No hard-and-fast rules about what to major in
Where does all this leave the college student still deciding on her major? High unemployment for computer science majors is scary; there’s no getting around that. Students shouldn’t treat CS as a golden ticket to a six-figure salary. Too many CS students wind up without the financial security they may have expected. And AI could still affect this field in ways we don’t yet understand.
At the same time, it’s key to ask what the alternative is. Other college majors have lower unemployment rates, but also lower salaries. You might have an easier time finding a job, but it probably won’t pay as well. Consider an education degree: the unemployment rate for this major is just 1.5 percent, but early-career graduates earn just $45,000. Moreover, unemployment is on the rise for college graduates overall, not just CS majors.
Ultimately, the decision about whether CS is still a worthwhile major must be an individual one. Prospective CS students should weigh the rewards (high salaries) against the risks (higher unemployment, and the possibility of further AI-related disruption). Equally important to consider is the opportunity cost—the expected outcomes of your second-choice major. Different students will come to different conclusions, depending on their own circumstances and risk tolerance.
Finally, students shouldn’t ignore the joy factor. What are you most passionate about? Computer science or another field? Consider how much income you’d be willing to sacrifice to pursue a “passion” field. Money does matter—financial security and disposable income can contribute to a meaningful life as much as a “dream” career—but high-paid fields can also be miserable if you find the work uninteresting.
So, should you still major in CS? Unfortunately, I can’t make that decision for any individual student. Anyone giving hard-and-fast answers for momentous life decisions like what to major in should be met with skepticism—including those who uncritically boost computer science, and those who declare the major’s impending death at the hands of AI.
What I’m writing
Three states—Utah, Oklahoma, and Indiana—are going even further than the federal government on higher education accountability. While the “Do No Harm” standard—which kicks degree programs out of the federal student loan system if their graduates have low earnings—has commanded attention, states are taking even more consequential steps to hold their public colleges and universities accountable for poor ROI. But each approach is different, with its own strengths, and it’s great to see the laboratories of democracy at work.
In a public comment on the Education Department’s latest rulemaking, I make the case for largely preserving the current definition of “professional student.” For more on the graduate-vs.-professional saga, see my past blog posts on the historical understanding of professional degrees, the case of advanced nursing programs, and why expanding the definition of “professional” could lead to unaffordable debt burdens.
What I’m reading
California has a “pay-for-performance” apprenticeship program that provides a predictable stream of funding for apprenticeships that meet certain wage requirements. It’s proven successful, writes Colleen Connolly for WorkShift.
The Pell Grant program faces a $5 billion shortfall this year—and it’s only expected to grow, reports the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Conservatives should build their own scholarly journals, argues my colleague Dan Buck for the Martin Center.
High student loan nonpayment rates put 1,800 colleges at risk of losing access to loans—and the Education Department is encouraging schools to take action.
What I’m doing
I was in Miami last month for work, but fortunately I had enough free time to go diving at Neptune Memorial Reef, where hundreds of barracuda were congregating for the beginning of mating season. Check out videos here and here.
